Bitcoin prices have rallied almost 40% in a month.
Dreamstime
Bitcoin
and other cryptocurrencies were little changed Monday, holding firm at elevated levels near the peak of a recent rally. However, one technical indicator is flashing and could suggest prices may be vulnerable to retracing some gains.
The price of Bitcoin has fallen less than 1% over the past 24 hours to below $36,950, slipping further from its recent peak near $38,000 but still within a range that has held for almost a week after the latest stage of a month-long rally. The largest digital asset has surged almost 40% in less than a month amid calls for a new bull market, snapping out of a prolonged period of subdued volatility and trading volumes.
Like the
Dow Jones Industrial Average
and
S&P 500,
Bitcoin is likely to react to macroeconomic data this week that could shift the needle on the outlook for interest rates, as borrowing costs play an important role in demand for risk-sensitive assets.
While traders recently have been optimistic that the Federal Reserve has finished raising rates, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last week said that further increases are still a possibility, putting economic data this week into sharp focus. The consumer-price index (CPI) inflation reading Tuesday alongside Wednesday’s retail sales data could both be catalysts for readjusting rate expectations.
“The wider financial market seems to hold optimism for the U.S. CPI and retail sales to indicate slowing inflation and demands this week, and if they do, Bitcoin could test $38,000,” said Yuya Hasegawa, an analyst at crypto exchange Bitbank.
More immediately, however, the technical market backdrop may be dimming for Bitcoin after weeks of gains, which could add pressure on crypto prices more broadly. “Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) continues to diverge from the price trend, which usually indicates a trend reversal,” noted Hasegawa. “RSI’s divergence has occurred twice this year and they usually last about one month until the price changes its course … Bitcoin’s price trend may start to reverse towards the end of the week.”
Beyond Bitcoin,
Ether
—the second-largest token, which recently has benefited from news that
BlackRock
has filed for a spot Ether exchange-traded fund (ETF)—advanced less than 1% to $2,050. Smaller cryptos or altcoins were more mixed, with
Cardano
down 4% but
Polygon
popping 5%. Memecoins were lower, with both
Dogecoin
and
Shiba Inu
declining more than 1%.
Write to Jack Denton at [email protected]
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