Key Takeaways
- Apple is poised to overtake Samsung as the global leader in smartphone shipments this year.
- Market research from Counterpoint shows that the iPhone 17 lineup has been a hit in the U.S. and China.
- Counterpoint analysts expect Apple to remain the top phone seller in the world through 2029.
Apple is set to overtake Samsung as the leading smartphone maker in the world in 2025, claiming the top spot for the first time in over a decade, following the successful release of the iPhone 17 series.
According to market research from Counterpoint released Wednesday, the iPhone 17 lineup Apple debuted in September has been a hit in the company’s two key markets: the U.S. and China. More people are upgrading their phones than last year, sparking double-digit sales growth in both markets this year compared to 2024.
Overall, the smartphone market is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2025, per Counterpoint. The research firm projects that Apple will capture 19.4% of global market share in smartphone shipments in 2025, surpassing Samsung’s expected 18.7% share for the year.
Counterpoint told CNBC on Wednesday that Apple is expected to ship around 243 million iPhones this year, compared to Samsung’s 235 million shipments. Apple shipments are projected to grow 10% this year, compared to Samsung’s 4.6%, per the research firm. The last time Apple led in shipment volume was in 2011; Samsung has held the top spot since then.
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“Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point,” Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang said in a statement. “Consumers who purchased smartphones during the Covid-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase. Furthermore, 358 million secondhand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years.”
Wang sees Apple continuing to dominate sales in the future. The company is expected to release a foldable iPhone in 2026 and implement a major iPhone design overhaul in 2027.
Considering those developments, Counterpoint expects that Apple will remain the top smartphone seller in the world through 2029.
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Apple said earlier this month that it expects holiday quarter revenue growth of 10% to 12%, or about $137 billion to $139 billion in sales, marking its biggest quarter to date for total revenue and iPhone sales. The company could hit record revenue as high as $140 billion for the quarter, Bloomberg reports.
More iPhones could be on their way. Apple is expected to launch the budget iPhone 17e in the spring at a price point starting at $599. The company released the iPhone 16e at the same price in February.
Apple has delayed the arrival of a more personalized AI Siri to 2026, but Counterpoint notes that the delay “has not been a detriment to iPhone sales” and will likely drive more upgrades when introduced next year.
Key Takeaways
- Apple is poised to overtake Samsung as the global leader in smartphone shipments this year.
- Market research from Counterpoint shows that the iPhone 17 lineup has been a hit in the U.S. and China.
- Counterpoint analysts expect Apple to remain the top phone seller in the world through 2029.
Apple is set to overtake Samsung as the leading smartphone maker in the world in 2025, claiming the top spot for the first time in over a decade, following the successful release of the iPhone 17 series.
According to market research from Counterpoint released Wednesday, the iPhone 17 lineup Apple debuted in September has been a hit in the company’s two key markets: the U.S. and China. More people are upgrading their phones than last year, sparking double-digit sales growth in both markets this year compared to 2024.
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